Ensayos abarca la política económica y social, cubriendo áreas tales como macroeconomía, economía internacional, economía monetaria, economía financiera, políticas fiscales, crecimiento, desarrollo, historia de la política económica, instituciones, regulación económica, organización industrial, políticas sociales, mercado de trabajo, pobreza y distribución del ingreso, entre otros. Ensayos apunta a un balance entre cuestiones positivas y normativas de la política económica, desde diversos enfoques, considerando particularmente dentro de las cuestiones normativas aquellos temas relevantes para la Doctrina Social de la Iglesia. Está dirigida a académicos, docentes e investigadores de las ciencias económicas, funcionarios del sector público, analistas económicos y prensa especializada. La revista ha sido descontinuada. Su último número fue publicado en 2021.
Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina
Growth Capacity of Argentina in the Long Term
Argentina grew 39% between 2003 and 2006. Many circumstances generated this impressive performance but one of them was decisive: the existence of idle productive capacity after a four year recession. Thus, the permanent reduction of this idle capacity during the last four years poses two important and related questions: “how fast can the economy grow in the short term?” and “what is the long run growth rate?” To answer both of them we estimate Argentina’s potential GDP and the corresponding output gap using a production function approach. The main conclusion is that in order to attain a 4% long run growth rate the economy needs more and better investment than the one registered today.
Copyright (c) 2019 Ensayos de Política Económica
Editorial: Ensayos de Política Económica 2017
Gintis, Herbert (2014). The Bounds of Reason: Game Theory and the Unification of the Behavioral Sciences
The relationship between the real exchange rate and the real wage in Argentina 2001-2015: Reexamining the evidence
The paper aims to reexamine the relations between the real exchange rate and the real wage for Argentina during 2001-2015. The results confirm the inverse relationship between the variables. One difference with respect to the classic works was to disaggregate the salaries by categories: registered, unregistered, public and general level. The higher elasticity was obtained in the wages of the unregistered workers, possibly due to their informal status and because they are outside collective bargaining agreements, is less likely to protect their purchasing power.
Cultural productive dimension in Argentina: estimation through the Culture Satellite Account
Culture plays an increasingly important role in societies, so it is necessary to measure its economic contribution, which, to be comparable, is estimated based on the Satellite Culture Account, within the framework of the System of National Accounts. The cultural added value represented 3.49% of that generated by the economy in 2014, similar to that produced by the construction and financial intermediation service sectors, and more than twice as much electricity, gas and water, and hotels and restaurants. The cultural industries, linked to technological changes, represented 85.5% of the value added in 2014, while the arts and heritage contributed 13% and 1.4%, respectively.
Is a "Soft" Monetary Authority Appropriate?
Taking the "objective inflation strategy" as a frame of reference, it is usual to discuss what is most convenient for a society in terms of the degree of "hardness" or "aggressiveness" of a monetary authority to defend its inflation target, and the credibility it has among the economic agents. In this document we use a Neo-Keynesian Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model both with rational and adaptive expectations to analyze this question and we also quantify the effects of these two types of authorities on social welfare using an utility function. Our results suggest that the problem that can be derived from a "soft" authority is to risk the loss of credibility in its (supposed) effort to reach a certain inflation target. In addition, we present and use a solution of our model simple enough to allow other simulations related to this class of models to be implemented in a spreadsheet.
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models
Reforms and Growth in Japan of Abenomics
In 2012, Prime Minister Abe launched an audacious plan to revitalize the stagnant Japanese economy. Based on three pillars, the plan helped the third largest economy to return to the track of economic growth, but it could not solve some structural problems of the economy, as the high level of indebtedness, very low inflation and the bottleneck that the lack of workers present to future economic growth. This paper revisits the context in which the plan was designed, presents its principles, examines its results in the economy and analyses the challenges for the near future.
[RETRACTED ARTICLE] External Account Reversion Models: Cases in comparison of Argentina, Colombia and Brazil
The present work examines the principal determinants of the reversion of the trade deficit, across a review of the theoretical corpus and the empirical work. The quantitative analysis was realized by means of the model Logit, whose database consists of the report of 138 countries during 1970-2011. This treatment allows establishing the principal reasons and macroeconomic variables that affect the current account reversal (CAR). Likewise, this paper contemplates a comparative analysis of Argentina, Colombia and Brazil of the pre-established and relative probabilities of occurrence of episodes CAR with acceleration and deceleration of the economic growth (CARA and CARD).
Characterization of domestic employment in Argentina
Aging populations and the rise in women’s economic participation led to an increase in domestic employment’s relevance. Analyzing not only supply but also demand of these services in Argentina, this work seeks to provide information to help the future design of public policies pursuing to improve the well-being of those involved in this market. Using INDEC databases (EPH and CGI), this paper studies the relationship of domestic employees with informality, poverty, immigration and gender. The study analyzes poverty between the first semesters of 2017 and 2019. These results are used to simulate poverty scenarios given changes in domestic employees’ income. An analysis of the relation between salaries and the minimum wage is also provided. Then, using the ENES database (PISAC), demand is described by four features: Income, Geography, Education and Gender. The analysis suggests that both status and gender could play an important role in the demand for these services. Moreover, the study suggests minimum wage could be a benchmark for both formal and informal labor contracts. Finally, the study provides a brief description of different public policies aiming to improve the wellbeing of those involved in this market.
Copyright (c) 2021 Ensayos de Política Económica
Human Capital and The Economic Cycle: Enrollment in Education highest in the European Union in the period 2000-2018
The current study aims to analyze the cyclical behavior of enrollment in higher education of young adults. For this, a panel data is constructed for the countries of the European Union between 2000 and 2018. First, I find statistically significant effects of the business cycle on enrollment, which differ according to sociodemographic characteristics such as age and sex. In particular, for the enrollment of young people between the ages of 20 and 30, the results show both pro-cyclical effects of GDP per capita and counter-cyclical effects of the unemployment rate, although not for other age ranges. When separately analyzing enrollment in different types of programs, it is found that in short-cycle, bachelor's and master's degree programs, female enrollment is more affected than male enrollment by variations in GDP per capita. There are also differences in the behavior of enrollment according to the level of GDP per capita and financial depth of the country.
An estimation of expenditure needs for Argentinian provinces: A structural modeling approach
Since 1994 Argentina has failed to honor its Constitution by not passing a law that fully determines intergovernmental fiscal transfers at a national level. This paper uses an innovative structural framework to estimate, and ultimately propose, a new distribution scheme for such transfers. The structural approach allows for the recovery of deep parameters to accurately estimate the expenditure needs for each province, which can then be used to establish the distribution rates that should be assigned to each jurisdiction.
Discrete dynamics in a Solow growth model with constant differential savings and non-population growth constant
This paper considers the Solow economic growth model in discrete-time, with constant but different saving rates for workers and shareholders, and non-constant population growth rate given by discrete Richards’s equation. Its dynamical behavior is investigated including cycles and chaos emerging, mixing analytical tools, and computational simulations. Finally, chaos emerging is quantified using Lyapunov exponents, understanding the introduced model in economic terms.
COVID-19 at the local level: SEIR+ a model for projecting scenarios epidemiological and demands on the health system
This article presents a model able to describe and forecast the evolution of Covid-19 at the local level. This involves the design, programming and calibration of an epidemiological model that, in addition to the four states of a SEIR model, describes the path of severe and critical patients, fundamental states in order to plan the health system. Our model embeds local characteristics, such as the age composition of the population and the effect of mitigation measures on the reproductive factor. Likewise, our model is stochastic due to the incorporation of uncertainty in key variables associated with the virus and of difficult projection for the policy maker. Besides, we show the goodness of fit inside and outside the sample for Tucumán and Ciudad de Buenos Aires, Argentina. Finally, we show its application at the local level, forecasting a likely epidemiological scenario, and demands to the health system for Tucumán, Argentina.
Cass R. Sunstein (2020). Behavioral Science and Public Policy
Editorial: Ensayos de Política Económica 2021
Green-bricks: An empirical approach of shocks in soybean prices to residential building in Rosario, Argentina
Shocks in commodity prices affect developing countries not only on their macroeconomic aggregates, but also on specific industries. The aim of this paper is to study the impact of international soybean prices on the construction activity in Rosario, epicenter of the most fertile area in Argentina, a major soybean producer. VAR methodology is used and accounts for a positive effect in the period 1994-2018. The time path of the effect would be along the first year and a half, when the elasticity of a transitory impulse in soybean prices ranges between 0.69 a 0.96.
Copyright (c) 2020 Ensayos de Política Económica
Noise pollution and housing markets: A spatial hedonic analysis for La Plata City
Several cities around the world are affected by high levels of noise pollution. In fact, noise pollution is one of the main problems affecting the quality of life in cities. In this sense, noise, understood as an environmental stressor, can cause significant health problems, including sleep and learning disorders, memory troubles, lack of motivation and increase in irritability and aggressiveness. This work analyzes the value that individuals place on living in quieter areas. Using hedonic price models, we obtained an accurate assessment of the marginal willingness to pay of individuals to reduce noise pollution. The main result highlight the relevance of this topic: a buyer is willing to pay around 1.9% less for each decibel of noise around the house. Such result is especially relevant in the design of noise mitigation policies, as it determines whether the benefits of the policies designed to reduce noise pollution exceed their implementation costs.
Inflation Dynamics in the ABC (Argentina, Brazil and Chile) countries
This research analyses the inertia and persistence of headline and sectoral inflation for Argentina (two periods), Brazil and Chile using seasonal fractional integrated autoregressive moving average (S-ARFIMA model). Measuring inertia by the sum of the autoregressive coefficients, there is evidence of: (i) headline, clothing, health, housing and miscellaneous inertial inflation larger in Argentina (second period) than in Chile and Brazil, (ii) inertial inflation of food and beverages is larger for Chile than for Argentina (second period) and Brazil, and (iii) inertial inflation of education larger in Brazil than in Chile, which in turn is larger than in Argentina (second period). Measuring persistence by the size of the fractionally integrated coefficient, our results suggest long-memory or long-dependence of Brazilian headline, clothing and health inflation, and Chilean alcoholic beverages. We show also that the quarter-life of headline inflation occurs in 20, 3 and 15 months in Argentina (second period), Brazil and Chile, while its half-life takes 29, 15 and 13 months, respectively.
Living conditions and multidimensional poverty in the villages of the Greater Buenos Aires: the Puerta de Hierro neighborhood
This article describes living conditions in the Villa Puerta de Hierro, located in Isidro Casanova, La Matanza, Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina, using methods of poverty measurement based on a human rights perspective (fundamental deficits) and a welfarist approach (households’ economic situation). The dimensions of analysis in the space of human rights are education, housing and public services, health insurance, food security, work and social security. The analysis in the welfare space is based on monetary income. Results show almost every family suffers deprivations, and more than 60% of the households are extremely poor. The results are then used to make public policy ecommendations for improving living conditions in the slum neighborhood.
20 years of merger and acquisition control in Argentina (1999-2019): Performance indicators
This paper presents a statistical analysis of the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) evaluated by the Argentinean competition authority, from 1999 to 2019. In particular, we analyze the evolution of the quantity of cases using different classifications and cross checks in accordance with the nature of the operations (horizontal, vertical, conglomerate), the result of the evaluation (authorization, its denial or conditioning), the economic sector affected and the duration of the procedures. The analysis developed allows us to obtain quantitative indicators of the merger control and produces results and conclusions useful, both from the perspective of firms planning operations in Argentina and for the performance evaluation and design of public policies.
Robert Sugden (2018). The Community of Advantage: A Behavioural Economist´s Defence of the Market
Anne Case y Angus Deaton (2020). Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism
Editorial: Ensayos de Política Económica 2020
The international economic crisis from point of view of the social market economy
Inflationary impact on income quintiles in Argentina for the period 2003-2012
This article attempts to analyze the distributional impact of inflation in Argentina between 2003 and April 2012. The aim is to see what stratum of society has been hardest hit by rising inflation in the last decade and especially in recent years. The study takes into account the differences in consumption baskets of different quintiles and the differences in measures of general price index between private consultants and those built by the National Institute of Statistics and Census. For such purposes, we will construct a general price index by quintile and analyze the persistence of an inflation shock on each quintile through an econometric analysis.
Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson (2012). Why nations fail. The origins of power, prosperity and poverty
Quiggin, John (2012). Zombie economics. How dead ideas still walk among us
Equity of public financing of Argentine universities
This work analyzes the evolution of public financing per student, given to statemanaged argentine universities, with the objective of evaluating fund distribution equity. Four distribution indicators are calculated (range, coefficient of variation, Gini coefficient and Mc Loone index) for each year in the 1999-2009 period and a university ranking is constructed so as to study the relative situation of each in the distribution. The results show a high level of inequality in the distribution with an increasing tendency since the year 2005. Moreover, important changes in the relative positions of each university within the distribution are observed, which tended to favor bigger universities against some of the smaller ones.
Effects of monetary policy on a rigid price model in different currencies
In a two country dynamic model with sticky prices, this paper analyses the monetary policy transmission when firms set their prices in different currencies. Following Betts and Devereux (2000) we include an assumption that allows firms to set a unique price for local and foreign market in the currency of the importer. Some firms price to market and some firms set their prices in their own or their neighbor’s currency. The presence of sticky prices in the currency of the importer increases the volatility of exchange rate and reduces the positive effect that monetary policy has on consumption and real interest rates. In the absence of pricing to market, the bigger the number of firms that set their prices in the importer´s currency, the bigger the effect that a monetary shock, in the foreign country, has on its welfare and on its neighbor´s. However, the positive effect is lower, in both countries, when the shock occurs in the local country.
What is the potential demand for microcredits in Argentina? New estimates
The purpose of this paper is to estimate and characterize the profiles of the potential demand for microcredit in Argentina, according to a number of socioeconomic and demographic attributes. Our estimates are based on a survey conducted annually by the Pontifical Catholic University of Argentina spanning data from 5682 stratified households in Argentina for 2010. The paper provides a useful tool and fresh empirical evidence for microfinance institutions; Government, international organizations, donors and the academic community on the potential demand of microcredit on an annual basis from now onwards with the aim of strengthening and informing the supply of microcredit. We estimate a potential demand of about 661.000 to 919.000 potential consumers depending on the poverty line assumptions used. These potential consumers are mostly selfemployed and informal, half of them within the range of 30 to 49 years, over 60% male, 70% without access to banking services and living in the Southern Greater Buenos Aires, the Western Greater Buenos Aires, Córdoba, the Northern Greater Buenos Aires, Rosario and Mendoza, in that order of importance.